Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Aug 1, 2026?

If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 13% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $62K. 24-hour volume: $4K. Market closes August 1, 2026.

kalshipolitics

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Aug 1, 2026?

Closes: Aug 1, 2026
13% Yes
Buy Yes
16¢
Buy No
86¢
24h Vol
$4K
Total
$62K
OI
$29K
Resolution Rules
Primary

If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No." For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

Market Analysis