Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Aug 1, 2026?

If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 45% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $46K. 24-hour volume: $18K. Market closes August 1, 2026.

kalshipolitics

Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Aug 1, 2026?

Closes: Aug 1, 2026
45% Yes
Buy Yes
45¢
Buy No
56¢
24h Vol
$18K
Total
$46K
OI
$34K
Resolution Rules
Primary

If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.

Market Analysis
Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Aug 1, 2026? (45% odds) | Kelvon