Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This is a polymarket prediction market in the world category. Currently priced at 13% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $217K. 24-hour volume: $3K. Market closes December 31, 2026.

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Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Closes: Dec 31, 2026
13% Yes
Buy Yes
13¢
Buy No
88¢
24h Vol
$3K
Total
$217K
Liq
$35K
Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market Analysis