Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 12%?
If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 8% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 34% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $42K. 24-hour volume: $7K. Market closes April 28, 2027.
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 12%?
Resolution Rules
If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 8% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Karen Bass will be summed. If Karen Bass wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Karen Bass loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Karen Bass is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).