Will Karen Bass qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

If Karen Bass is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 91% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $50K. 24-hour volume: $4K. Market closes June 1, 2028.

kalshipolitics

Will Karen Bass qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Closes: Jun 1, 2028
91% Yes
Buy Yes
91¢
Buy No
10¢
24h Vol
$4K
Total
$50K
OI
$41K
Resolution Rules
Primary

If Karen Bass is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

If a candidate wins the first round outright with a majority (or whatever threshold Los Angeles requires to avoid a runoff), and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. A candidate is "announced to qualify" when the official election authority of Los Angeles certifies or announces qualification, OR when the Associated Press or at least two other Source Agencies report that Karen Bass has qualified for the runoff, whichever occurs first. Official certification is not required for resolution. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.

Market Analysis
Will Karen Bass qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? (91% odds) | Kelvon