Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in May 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.0% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a kalshi prediction market in the economics category. Currently priced at 99% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $36K. 24-hour volume: $2K. Market closes June 10, 2026.

kalshieconomics

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in May 2026?

Closes: Jun 10, 2026
99% Yes
Buy Yes
99¢
Buy No
24h Vol
$2K
Total
$36K
OI
$21K
Resolution Rules
Primary

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.0% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown

Market Analysis
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in May 2026? (99% odds) | Kelvon