Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be above 50%?
If the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary falls within 50% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 56% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $39K. 24-hour volume: $10K. Market closes June 9, 2027.
Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be above 50%?
Resolution Rules
If the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary falls within 50% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Graham Platner minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Graham Platner if Graham Platner wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Graham Platner loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Graham Platner minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Graham Platner if Graham Platner wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Graham Platner loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Graham Platner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Graham Platner wins, or the electoral votes received by Graham Platner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Graham Platner does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Graham Platner runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Graham Platner will be summed. If Graham Platner wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Graham Platner loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Graham Platner ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Graham Platner is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).