Will the margin of victory for Barry Moore in the 2026 Alabama Republican Senate runoff be above 15%?
If the margin of victory for Barry Moore in the 2026 Alabama Republican Senate runoff falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 1% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $66K. 24-hour volume: $43K. Market closes June 16, 2027.
Will the margin of victory for Barry Moore in the 2026 Alabama Republican Senate runoff be above 15%?
Resolution Rules
If the margin of victory for Barry Moore in the 2026 Alabama Republican Senate runoff falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Barry Moore minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Barry Moore if Barry Moore wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Barry Moore loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Barry Moore minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Barry Moore if Barry Moore wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Barry Moore loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Barry Moore minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Barry Moore wins, or the electoral votes received by Barry Moore minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Barry Moore does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Barry Moore runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Barry Moore will be summed. If Barry Moore wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Barry Moore loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Barry Moore ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Barry Moore is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).