Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

This is a polymarket prediction market in the world category. Currently priced at 10% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $207K. 24-hour volume: $162. Market closes March 31, 2026.

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Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Closes: Mar 31, 2026
10% Yes
Buy Yes
11¢
Buy No
91¢
24h Vol
$162
Total
$207K
Liq
$29K
Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Market Analysis
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? (10% odds) | Kelvon