Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting?

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a kalshi prediction market in the economics category. Currently priced at 2% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $44K. 24-hour volume: $5K. Market closes July 29, 2026.

kalshieconomics

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting?

Closes: Jul 29, 2026
2% Yes
Buy Yes
Buy No
99¢
24h Vol
$5K
Total
$44K
OI
$29K
Resolution Rules
Primary

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Market Analysis
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting? (2% odds) | Kelvon