Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?

The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest nu

This is a polymarket prediction market in the politics category. Currently priced at 28% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $65K. 24-hour volume: $26K. Market closes June 22, 2026.

polymarketpolitics

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?

Closes: Jun 22, 2026
28% Yes
Buy Yes
28¢
Buy No
73¢
24h Vol
$26K
Total
$65K
Liq
$45K
Resolution Rules

The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Market Analysis
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? (28% odds) | Kelvon