Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in June 2026?
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.8% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a kalshi prediction market in the economics category. Currently priced at 34% probability of YES. Total volume traded: $46K. 24-hour volume: $26K. Market closes July 14, 2026.
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in June 2026?
Resolution Rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.8% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown